A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."